Earnings in Miami

Table 3: 4 race gorups: Whites, Blacks, Cubans, Hispanics. Atlanta, LA, Houston, St. Petersburg – large populations of blacks and hispanics, exhibited a similar economic growth pattern.  

Earngings are lower in Miami. 1979: Whites : 8%, Black: 15% 1979-1985, whites are constant – contrasts the general decline of the over rall economy. Miami Black wages,1979-1981 constant, fell in 1982-1983, rose back in 1984, comparison cities steady decline. The data, no evident, the recession period 1982-1983. For non cuban hispanics, Miami, stable, only a slight drop in 1983. Comparison cities drop by 6 percent. Again, no evident. A decline in cuban wage, based on the assumption that the wages of eariler cuban immigrants were constant, the decline is consistent with the addition of 45,000 mariel workers to the cuban labor force. SHOW CURVE.

Table 4: Black in Miami is 2-4 points lower than than in comparison cities from 1979-1981, equalled or exceeded from 1982-1984. 1985, a return to the pre 1982 patteren. Sizable increase for cubans, based on the assumption that the eailer cuban immigrants were unaffcted, this effect is consistent with unployment rates of around 20% among the marielst themselves. The addtion to the cuban popuation. EQUATION. (3%4 don’t address the question of whether the mariels reduced earnings of less skilled natives in Miami.)

Table 5: “less-skiled”, (黑板)wage data from comparison cities. Non-cubans: male and female, white, black, hispanic. Education, potential experience, squared potential experience, are independent variebles. Then get the beta! The subsititute the beta to Miami non-cubans. And sorted them into quartiles. The fifth column is the difference, interquartile rage (IQR). [pic 1]

If reduced, should obserce a decline at least relative to the upper quartiles, but almost stable.(除79-81).

And, according to table 3, no negative effect.

Table 6: (Simple Diff in Diff model) • Table 6 shows raw and regression adjusted comparisons of wages, employment/population, and unemployment among all and low-educated blacks in Miami relative to the 4 other chosen cities. There is evidence that black wages, emp/pop, and unemployment in Miami all take a turn for the worse relative to blacks in other cities. But, this does not start until 1982 and has reversed by 1985. So, this makes it doubtful that it can be attributed to Mariel.  BLACK PEOPLE, two groups, all black and low education blacks. To eliminate any stronger effect on the less-skilled segment of blacks. Regression: education, gender, marital status, part-time status, private/public employment, potential experience for both miami and comparison cities. From table 3 we know, the magnitudes of the regerssion adjusted wage differntials are not sigificantly different from the unadjusted wage differentials, no any effct on black wages. Employment to population ratio, declines, due to recession. • Two general problems here: 1) there is almost no ‘pre’ period to get a baseline prior to Mariel. This is because the CPS MORG does not become available until 1979; 2) the U.S. experiences a severe recession from 1980 to 1983, and this makes all wage and employment numbers highly variable. Hence, we don’t have a good sense of what magnitude of causal effect we could reliably detect.