Jet Propulsion Laboratory - Jpl Strategy

Individual Case #1

Jet Propulsion Laboratory

Question 1. (25%)

1. (10%) Should Gentry Lee recommend launch or delay for the Mars Biological Explorer (MBE) mission? If so, why?

In my view Gentry Lee should delay the launch for the Mars Biological Explorer. The overall probability success of the EDL stage was below the confidence level (80%) than what risk review board wanted (96%). Two critical risks still remain that need to be mitigated #7 landing site safety and #5 Bio-marker Science Analyzer Instrument (BMSA), which are in red and yellow zone respectively. As this project is one of its kind, there are still many unknown-unknown risks those needs to be identified. Delaying the launch of the MBE would give additional 26 months to study on unknown risks and also increase the confidence level with the data that will be available about landing site.

1. (15%) What are the most important factors to consider in this decision?

Political Factor

There has been growing opinion in public that NASA and JPL are wasting taxpayer’s money due to earlier failed projects. Other projects in the pipeline are reliant on the success of this mission. The projects have no financial profit potential instead these projects were adopted to advance the knowledge and understanding of space. If the MBE project was to be a failure, then, there would be severe consequences in future for NASA and JPL. Delaying project will definitely warrant wrath from the public and the Congress, but failed mission would be catastrophic. The additional cost is acceptable as long as the project is not a failure.  

Critical Risk Factor

After CERR, the third milestone meeting the review board is still not confident in the success of the project. The reason for this is there still persists critical risks that would jeopardize the success of the mission. Additional time is required to convert risks from known-unknown to the known-known. #7 Landing site safety risks (RED Zone) are still in know-unknown category as the project team is speculating about terrain of land on Mars. The new mars orbiter will be start sending data in pictures that would have 3 to 4 times greater resolution of the current pictures. This would significantly reduce risk of the #7 landing site safety.

Question 2. (35%)

2.1 (15%) How did Gentry Lee, a project outsider, with no line authority, get the information to even consider such a decision? What processes did he install at JPL?

Gentry Lee is the Chief system engineer at JPL for MBE project. He also chairs the risk review board for the project (Chief Risk Office). He has embedded risk insurance process engineering process to overcome the overconfidence of the project engineers. He created a process of risk review with the project leads every quarter, thus obtain information on the risks. The project leader had their own risk review on a monthly basis. The new risk management procedure to bring knowledge and expertise to the program and to challenge the design and the method of MEB project engineers. Creation of risk review board which is a twelve-person board. The board met with all the project leads and engineers working on the project three times before launch of MBE.  Preliminary mission and system Review (PMSR), Critical Design Review (CDR) and Critical Events Readiness Review (CERR). In this meetings, board questioned and challenged project engineers (Intellectual Confrontation) thereby giving an outsiders perspective to engineers (Risk Identification). The team then assessed risks based on like hood occurrence and consequence to the project. Quantifying each risk initially and then classify them into green, yellow and red zones on the risk maps. The risk maps give Gantry Lee the necessary tool to base decisions on. One of the main reason everyone in the project accepted risk management was that risk was monitored at crucial stages of the mission.