Msl 5080 Case Study Review

      Decisions, decisions, decisions, life is all about making the right decisions and ensuring that they have the desired outcome. Some may argue as to what constitutes a good or bad decision but all will agree that it is the concept of the desired outcome that drives the decision to be made. A good decision can be defined as one that is based on reasoning assessed according to strict principles of validity, considers all available data, other solutions and applies a quantified and verified approach. “A bad decision is one that is not based on logic, does not use all available information, does not consider all alternatives and does not employ appropriate quantitative techniques” (Render, et al, 2012). Decisions can be categorized as being made with certainty, uncertainty and under risk.  Decisions made under the condition of certainty provides a way for the decision maker to rely on flawless knowledge of all the data needed to make a solid choice. By being able to thoroughly study the alternatives they are placed in a position to choose the best solution that maximizes conditions leading towards the desired outcome. Decisions under uncertainty are those where the outcome is known but the probabilities are not. Without probabilities, the optimization criteria cannot be applied. For example, a corporation that decides to expand its operation in a strange country may know little about the country’s culture, laws, economic environment, and politics. The political situation may be so volatile that even the experts cannot predict a possible change in government (WWW.citeman.com). When decision makers make decisions under risk they must consider the conditions under which the risk may occur. Conditions of risk occur when a manager must make a decision based on desired results instead of factual outcomes. Under conditions of risk, the manager can create a listing of all possible outcomes and correlate probabilities to the variety of end results (highered.mheducation.com). Decision makers are constantly weighing certainty/risk by looking at the situation before them, defining all the variables and associated issues that are present and weighing the risk against the uncertainty of the outcome.  

    When it comes to decision making many people have trouble with making decisions because they have trouble setting priorities. To them every choice looks about the same, and there is no way to tell what makes one better than another. Some impulsively pick a choice. This action often results in poor judgment since they picked a choice that stood out in some way. Some people can’t pick anything at all because they feel they have no basis for picking. Both groups need help in learning how to weigh pros and cons, look at practical aspects, see the longer-term advantages, or note the big picture (www.grcne.com).  A good example of this type of behavior is the starting right case study. In this study six potential investors have to make the decision whether to invest or not. To facilitate their desire to make the right decision to invest or not they can utilize a decision table. The decision table will list all alternatives, possible outcomes and actual payoffs. Once the decision table is created they can then adopt a decision theory model based on the environment, amount of risk and uncertainty (Render, et al, 2012).