Policy and Decision Cuba Missile Crsis

Introduction

The purpose of this paper is to examine the application of game theory to the decision making process; specifically, how the utilities of game theory can be used in real world events to add value to decision making. This paper will begin with a brief overview of game theory, followed by an overview of the Cuban Missile Crisis. Subsequently, game theory will be applied to the Cuban Missile Crisis to analyze the various choices, actions, and reasons of the player’s decisions. Limitations of game theory will then be discussed. The final section will examine whether despite there being limitations in the application of game theory to real work events, can principles of game theory can still be of aid in the decision making process.

Working limitations and assumptions of this paper include:

• The Crisis Missile Crisis is intended to be used as an aid to demonstrate the application of game theory and not an in-depth study of the event itself.
• Game Theory is a complex study, however only two forms of game theory (chicken game and the prisoner’s dilemma) will be discussed in this paper.
• Due to the page length restriction, this paper will focus more on Kennedy than Khrushchev’s choices and decisions
• Game theory has two branches: cooperative and uncooperative. This paper will focus on uncooperative theory
• This paper will not use the mathematical formulas to illustrate game theory, instead words will be used for simplification

Game Theory        

Game theory is a science of strategy that attempts to determine mathematically and logically the actions of rational “players” to secure the most advantageous outcomes in a “game” (Dixit and Nalebuff 1). Game theory helps explain the collective human activity as an outcome of interactive decisions amongst two or more players. In order to achieve the best outcome, players bring forth a set of ranked preferences from best to worst.  Since each player has analytical authority and the capability to make decisions in order to achieve their objectives, game theory allows players to make decision independently of other players with a sense of predictability of the strategies most likely to be selected by other players (Brams & Kilgour, 1988, p. 189). Therefore, players will act on those actions which will allow them to obtain the most advantageous outcomes (Cismas, Hohan and Sirghi 721).

Cuban Missile Crisis

A competitive and adversarial past between the United States (US), the Soviet Union and Cuba made for difficult international relations. On October 14, 1962 a US U-2 spy plane discovered missile sites being built along the north coast of Cuba. It was later determined through US surveillance that medium and intermediate range ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads from a distance of more than 1,000 nautical miles were being transported from the Soviet Union and setup in Cuba (American Rhetoric.com). The issue of concern for the US was that those missiles were capable of hitting most of the Western Hemisphere, as far north as Hudson Bay and Canada. Citing past agreements, in his speech to the nation on October 22, 1962, President Kennedy stated that although the US and Soviet Union have “deployed strategic nuclear weapons with great care, they never upset the precarious stat quo which insured that weapons were not used in the absence of some vital challenge” (American Rhetoric.com). However, the current “under the table” shipment of nuclear warheads to Cuba constituted a deliberate act of deception and is considered an offensive threat. In response, Kennedy directed seven initial steps in response to the buildup of nuclear missiles in Cuba: