The Impending Collapse of the Islamic State

THE IMPENDING COLLAPSE OF THE “ISLAMIC STATE”

ISIS (the Islamic State in Iraq and Greater Syria) employs an effective use of propaganda, fear tactics, recruitment initiatives and guerrilla warfare in an effort to purify Islam and appoint a global caliphate. However, despite significant progress made by the organisation, it is reasonable to conclude that the Islamic State will not successfully achieve such objectives. The history of ISIS, its radicalised nature and fundamental ideologies are a clear reflection of the institute's inevitable decline. The group’s use of fear and propaganda as a means of simultaneously attracting and threatening the western world will never realistically accomplish its intended aims on a large scale. Although exhibiting an increase in violent terror attacks, due to an exponential increase in funding, ISIS cannot compete with the armies of national superpowers like the USA and are incapable of waging a debilitating third world war. An insight into the methods of countering the Islamic State and the extent of growing retaliative progress is further validation that, although powerful, a terrorist organisation with radicalised views as narrow and inaccessible as those upheld by ISIS render their objectives unfeasible.

The formation and background of ISIS, accompanied by their associated radicalised approach to Sunni Islamic doctrine indicates their inability to obtain global power. As described by Noah Feldman, an author and professor dubbed by ‘Esquire’ magazine as a “public intellectual of our time”, in his highly acclaimed book “The Fall and Rise of the Islamic State” (2012), ISIS was established in four stages. Stage one occurred when a branch of Al-Qaeda was formed in Iraq titled “Al-Qaeda in Mesopotamia” which waged guerrilla war against American coalition forces and the region’s Shi’ite Muslim population. In 2006, at the commencement of the second stage of establishment, the “Islamic State in Iraq” was formed and served as an umbrella network for several jihadi organisations with similar intents to Al-Qaeda (p.125). Stage three saw the ISI strengthen and form ‘ISIS’. The American military withdrawal from Iraq allowed terrorist organisations to flourish, meanwhile, the outbreak of The Syrian Civil war led The ISI to see the necessity of branching their organisation into Syrian territory, also known as the “support” front. Dissension between these two groups created a rift between the ISI and its Al-Qaeda roots, leading to the establishment of a singular organisation known as the “Islamic State in Iraq and Greater Syria” (ISIS). The current stage, as of June 2014, has seen dramatic military achievements for ISIS, beginning with their occupation of Mosul (the second largest Iraqi city) and the formation of a governmental centre in Eastern Syria. Furthermore, ISIS has declared the establishment of an “Islamic Caliphate” with ISIS leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi at its head (p.126). ISIS uphold Salafist-jihadi principles (Lister, 2015, p.26). Lister and The Meir Amit and Terrorism Information Centre explain that the ISIS version of Salafism seeks an extremist Sunni political-religious reform movement within Islam seeking to partake in a “holy war” against non-Salafist Muslims as a means of forming a supranational Islamic Caliphate. This society will to be ruled by Sharia law, according to its most extreme interpretation (Lister, 2015, p.35). Sharia law, however, is perhaps the greatest impeding factor on ISIS support and potential for the practical application of their ideologies (Feldman, 2012, p.57). For example, offences described by the Hadith include criminal jurisdiction that are associated with set punishments. Punishments, as according to Oxford Islamic Studies, include stoning as punishment for adultery and death for apostasy (Lister, 2016, p.154). Brutal law enforcement is not applicable to 21st century culture and as such, the vast majority of people and governments outside of ISIS’s heartland would never consider the practice of such (Wood 2015). Overall, the growth of ISIS over the past decade could be seen as an indication of their widespread popularity, however their achievements are strictly limited to the Middle East where a small hub of Salafist-jihadi Muslims believes in their ability to assert control.