Demographic Transition Model

Discuss the validity of the Demographic Transition Model (15marks)

The DMT outlines how the population of a country changes over a period of time. It plots the birth and death rate, and shows how countries pass through 5 stages of population change.

It could be considered to be a successful tool, for example it enables a country to predict population change. It also allows for comparisons to be drawn up, particularly between MEDCs and LEDCs, and how economic and social factors may effect a population. This ability to predict means that governments can adapt and enforce regulations in order to maintain economic stability. It could also take action if fertility rates fall below replacement rate.

Additionally the stages can be applied globally, increasing the reliability of the DTM. In particular is has successfully outlined NIC such as China and Brazil, who are following similar patterns to Europe 100 years later. This shows that the model allows for flexibility of time periods for countries.

However, it does not consider that some countries will not pass through all the stages, such as in a number of LEDCs. For example Zimbabwe has actually gone back in stages due to famine, war and HIV.

Additionally, the DTM does not take migration into consideration which is a key factor for many countries today. It does not indicate reasons for population change so it is debateable whether accurate predictions can actually be made.

Ultimately despite its advantages it is very difficult to have one model for all countries to follow where there is so much variation, especially between MEDCs and LEDCs.