Pakistan's Option in Post 2014 Afghanistan - Pakistan’s Policy Options in Afghanistan After the Withdrawal of Foreign Forces

PAKISTAN’S POLICY OPTIONS IN AFGHANISTAN AFTER THE WITHDRAWAL OF FOREIGN FORCES

Introduction

1. Since the birth of human race, man has been fascinated by the mere idea of have a sneak peek into the realm of future he has resorted to sorcery, prophecies and later to astrology. Sorcerers, priests and astrologers would read omens to guess the outcomes of battles. As his intellect evolved and he grew less superstitious, war scholars were consulted for such a foresight. In the modern era where rapidity and diversity of the events is so overwhelming that a single mind could not be entrusted with these tasks, think tanks were formed and at all the foreign relation institutions and staff colleges of armed forces, methods to grasp and read the harbingers of a conflict were studied in depth and researched upon. Yet the desire of man was same all along, to prophesy, forewarn and prepare for any conflict that could be brewing latently.

2. For Americans, the Afghanistan war is entering its final phase. Obama knows that this war will end on his watch, but not on his terms. That his legacy as president will inevitably be shaped by its final outcome. Budgetary pressures and war weariness are taking their toll on the American nation. Yet, Obama is striving to make the departure a grand finale and make it look as if it has been a great victory, through retention of a symbolic garrison in Afghanistan after 2014. Foremost challenges to post withdrawal stability in Afghanistan are inadequacy and incredibility of political structures, economic frailty, fragmented society; and fragility of law and order situation, coupled with dysfunctional national security apparatus etc.

3. This vagueness has given rise to speculative scenario building based on various degrees of rollback of American influence. Total hands off, partial military withdrawal, complete military pullout and yet retention of economic and political influence of varying degree are some of the assumptions on which most of the postulations are hinged. In this ambiguous scenario presence of Pakistan and effects to be borne by her are stark realities. Pakistan must identify the challenges that are foreseeable and opportunities that are graspable, in order to better prepare for her greater and meaningful role in the region shaping to her advantage. Following paragraphs would highlight certain option that will be presented to her on the eve of US withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Realization of adverse realities

4. Although the US has failed to win war in Afghanistan, through covert war, it has succeeded in achieving most of the objectives that it had chalked out against Pakistan. Both the United States and Afghanistan have persistently