The Sentencing of the 6 Seismologists in Italy

Nature around us in general is unpredictable and complex thus modern day technology and the human mind cannot predict accurate and complete data. Therefore I disagree to the judgment and the statement that "inaccurate, incomplete and contradictory" ( 1) information had been given by the seismologists. First of all, the word prediction does not guarantee anything as it can have limitations. The prediction is based on patterns of reoccurrence of previous earthquakes and the study of plate tectonics, however this is unpredictable and technology has not reached such a point where readings of plate tectonics can be made so accurately. Moreover, people rely heavily on technology thus they ignore that technology can provide inaccurate information.

There is a false perception of people about what scientists can do thus people overestimate the ability of scientists and blame them for something that is not up to their control. Like the chaos theory about chaotic behavior occurring in the natural system, which deviates from the general law or pattern of the occurrence of an activity, the seismologists were unable to predict something that does not follow the norm. In addition there are many variables to measuring the occurrence of an earthquake and different combinations of these variables can change the magnitude, the frequency, speed of onset, duration and the time of occurrence. Some of the variables are plate boundaries, oceanic crusts, volcanic regions, tidal forces, random gas emissions, animal behavior, and seismicity patterns. However, there have been cases where earthquakes occur in places that have not experienced earthquakes in the past. In contrast earthquake prone areas may not be affected for a long period of time. Thus danger areas change and sometimes it cannot be forecasted.

These seismologists may have not taken precaution to prevent the economical loss and the physiological effect on the public that can be caused