Decline of the Personal Computer

Computer manufacturers across the board have seen slumping sales in desktop and laptop computers in the last year.  This is mainly due to the rise of tablets and smartphones and their increasing ability to replace full computers.  This paper will discuss the rise of tablets and smartphones, the declining relevance of the personal computer, and the implications for companies related to the trends of the consumer electronic market.

Tablets and smartphones have exploded in their popularity since their introduction.  Apple led the way when it revealed the iPhone in 2007 and the iPad in 2010. These new types of computing devices were followed by a plethora of competitors such as Google, RIM, HP, Mozilla, and Linux.

According to a recent poll conducted by the NPD Group, the number of connected devices per U.S. Internet household has grown to 5.7, up from 5.3 devices three months ago (1).  The study also mentions that during the same time, tablet users increased by almost 18 million while smartphones increased by almost 9 million users.  This growth has not yet overtaken the PC market.  Personal computers are still found in 93 percent of internet-connected homes, but there was little growth

This poll in an example of the current trends seen in the United States, but it is also a reflection of a global trend.  In India, for example, several competing firms have begun to offer tablets in the $20 to $40 range.  While at first this was considered a risk, the customer response has far exceeded expectations (2).  Many people in developing countries may not be able to afford a full desktop or laptop computer, but they are willing to buy cheap tablets to get a similar online experience.  Tablet computers offer long battery life, easy-to-use interfaces, mobile connectivity, and light-weight designs.  These factors, along with relatively cheap prices, make tablets and smartphones an attractive alternative for an internet-connected consumer.

The tablet and smartphone market will continue to evolve and grow with fierce competition for the foreseeable future.  This growth, however, is not guaranteed to continue. Massive growth in a new product category isn’t that unusual. Sustained growth is much more important (3).

Personal computers have been around for decades now.  They were the focal point of what many refer to as the “Information Revolution.”   At one time, computers were giant machines that could fill multiple rooms.  Today, extremely powerful computers can be found in desktop and laptop varieties.  They represent the productivity and creativity of a global economy.  The only thing that can stop the once perpetually-growing PC industry is the rise of tablets that can take their place.

According to the International Data Corporation, worldwide desktop PC shipments are expected to drop by 4.3% in 2013.  The IDC also expects that tablet shipments will surpass desktop PCs in 2013 and portable PCs in 2014 (4).  This is evidence that full PC’s are becoming less relevant to consumers.  Some analysts, however, would argue that this is only a temporary trend.  PC’s will always be relevant because they drive business.  Unless tablet computers can match the productivity capacity of desktop or laptop PC’s, there will be not an overtaking of one industry by the other.