Fooled by Randomness

Fooled by Randomness

Fooled by Randomness is written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a Lebanese American essayist. The book discusses about the cognitive partial opinions and the irrational ideas which may influence how human beings behave and make decisions. The author refutes some unexamined assumptions related to the patterns of the world. The book’s thesis is that we sometimes confuse luck with skill and thus misunderstand the basic functions of probability and the effects of luck. There are some basic principal ideas expounded in the book that I have learned a lot from.

        First, luck, opportunities, and randomness is more and more important in the lives of people, but their significant roles are neglected to a large extent in many people’s minds. It is very possible that a person who works hard and is conscious about the risks in life may lead a considerable and comfortable life. However, a person’s life is full of randomness either by having enormous luck or taking unconscious risks. Skills may result in something like mild achievement, while variance may also explain the wild success.

        Second, people are inclined to prove random results as non-random and deliberate behaviors. It can be proved by most people who have religious belief. In their minds, the fate of human beings is predetermined by Gods or one God before they are born to the world.

        Thirdly, correlation is not equal to causal relationship. There are truly some causalities in everyday that can be deduced by the relationships, however, not all of them can be, because randomness exists everywhere.        For instance, according to the official statistics, people in the Northern part of China tend to be taller than those in the Southern part of China. But can I say a person is tall because he or she comes from the North? Obviously not. There might be some relationship between the hometown and the height indeed, but it is not a direct causal relationship.