Real Estate Empirical Analysis

Introduction

 In modern society, the Real estate issues are not only economic issues, but also often involve social issues and even political issues, having a strong relationship with the people's livelihood

As the CEInet shows, the average housing price of the whole country increase 15% in 2007.

Foreign direct investment includes "mergers and acquisitions, building new facilities, reinvesting profits earned from overseas operations and intra company loans".

Because of the particularity of Chinese financial regulations, the financing difficulty is a general problem to small and middle-size enterprises. So the FDI become their new financing channel.

More and more scholars are worrying about the FDI would produce a huge effect on the Real Estate market. So it is necessary to research the correlation and effects between the FDI and the Real Estate, which may also help government to make some policies to maintain the stability of the market.

Cointergration

 the promoting role are not very significant.

Granger causality

Since the three time series are all non-stationary series, and they are not allow to do Granger Causality Test as data series. So we must do difference calculation first. The series we use in Granger Causality Test are DLNFDI, DLNS and DLNV. They are all stationary time series we need to do the test.

According to information criteria, the optimal lag length we found for DLNFDI being Granger causality of DLNS is 5. And the optimal lag length for DLNFDI being Granger causality of DLNV is 10. In the situation of optimal lag length, we can find DLNFDI strongly Granger cause DLNV and DLNS at the 95% significant level. What’s more, DLNV Granger cause DLNFDI at the same level. And we also know DLNS does not Granger cause DLNFDI at the 95% significant level. 

VEC

As Granger theorem said, if there are some non-stationary series having cointegration relationship, the VEC functions should be exist.