Strategy Briefing on the Next Eight Emerging Economies

New Frontiers: Strategy Briefing on the Next Eight Emerging Economies

Strategy Briefing | 14 Jan 2010

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Overview

n The “next eight” markets of the G20 cover a wide range of countries in terms of geography, economy and population. They are

Argentina, Indonesia, Mexico, Poland, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea and Turkey. Although Poland isn’t a G20 member in its

own right, it is represented via the EU as 20th member.

n All are relatively small in terms of total GDP, but more significant when purchasing power is taken into account. Although smaller in

population than China and India, many of the “next eight” have more developed and sophisticated consumer markets.

n All eight markets have been affected by the global economic downturn, but are expected to perform significantly better than mature

markets over the next five years. The downturn has revealed the imbalances in the global economy. Many of the markets covered in

this report are reliant on exports to mature markets and thus now have to consider developing stronger domestic markets. Fiscal

stimulus packages have encouraged the initial stages, and it remains to be seen if this will be transformed into long-term changes in

consumption.

n The slowdown in economic growth also reveals the increasing gap between rich and poor within nations: one that is often reflected in

the gap between the lifestyles of urban and rural dwellers. It has been the rising middle class in these markets who have been the

engine of economic growth. With youth unemployment rising, the expectations of the rising Millennial generation (under 25 year-olds)

will have to be managed to avoid social unrest.

n Argentinean consumers remain wary following the economic shocks they suffered at the beginning of the decade. Argentina is reliant

on imports (including energy) and so is affected by rising commodity prices, which exacerbate the trade gap. Drought will reduce the

2009 harvest. It is the most urbanised of the markets covered, with 91% of its population living in cities. There are major differences

between the industrialised north and rural south. The middle classes were affected badly in the 2002 crisis and there is a