The Role of Human Factor in Incidence and Severity of Road Crashes Based on the Cart and Lr Regression - a Data Mining Approach

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PAPER REVIEW ASSIGNMENT

The Role Of Human Factor In Incidence And Severity Of Road Crashes Based On The CART And LR Regression:

A Data Mining Approach

PREPARED BY:

NORSYUHADA BINTI JOHAN

2014260284

LECTURER NAME:

PM DR YAP BEE WAH

General Comment:

This paper begins with general overview of the biggest public health treats in the world which is accidents with some statistics around the world. The authors stated the biggest role of the factor influence on road safety and accidents is human factors compared with road and vehicles based on the other researcher’s study. The authors want to identify the role of human factor in incidence and severity of road cases in Iran since there is no other same research carried out in the context of road crashes in Iran. This topic will explore and describe certain issues on role of human factor in severity of road crashes in that particular country. The paper is well written and easy to follow. The existing literature is well cited. The authors measured the dependent variable and the independent variables during 2006 which might help the governments in better road designs and traffic management for the coming years.

Methods and Data:

The traffic data was analyzed by using Data Mining Technique such as Logistic Regression, Classification and Regression Trees. In order to evaluate accident severity, the authors use different classification models which are CART and Logistic Regression using SPSS 16.0. The usual Logistic Regression cannot be used because the dependent variable of this study has three different levels which are “Fatal”, “Injury” and “No Injury”. Therefore, Multinomial Logistic Regression is the best alternatives since the dependent variable can be more than two categories. The data for this research were based on Database of Traffic Accidents of Iran’s Police which has more than thirty columns or attributes. In this study, the authors focused only human factors variables which are the ages of the drivers, gender of the drivers, the situations of fasten safety belt, driver’s certificate and the severity of the crash (Fatal, Injury and No Injury). The size of target population was 347285 road crashes that were occurred in Iran during 2006.