The Coming Anarchy

“The Coming Anarchy” is written as a travelogue nightmare, taking the reader on a journey into very poor and unsafe regions of West Africa, where cities are fast becoming sprawling slums. Published 1994, author Robert Kaplan argues that criminality and resource depletion and scarcity will be the reason “much of Africa is set to go over the edge”. (pg. 64) Contributing factors to his theory of impending catastrophe include weak, corrupt governments, rampant disease and surging overpopulation. Groups of young, jobless men are permitted to essentially hijack society. Linking the aforementioned issue with the rapid degradation of the environment and upheaval will be the collective standard. However dim the future looks for West Africa, Kaplan theory cautions not to turn a blind eye. In this globally connected world, African problems will not be their burden alone. To Kaplan the question is not “Why should I care about Africa?”, but instead “How quickly will the same issues “confront our civilization?””(p60) This superbly written article, almost twenty years old, is still currently relevant, maybe even more so today.

Kaplan asserts that “the environment” is “the national security issue of the early twenty-first century.” (pg 65) Thomas Fraser Homer-Dixon’s theory, which Kaplan cites throughout his paper, that “future wars and civil violence will often arise from scarcities of resources such as water, cropland, forests and fish” seems almost inevitable. News coverage of the negative effects “climate change” and environmental disasters continue to have on the Earth and mankind is almost an everyday occurrence. One constant in the world; no country is immune. Undoubtedly, environmental strain is pushing more Africans towards the coastal cities where population surge will worsen the already frail infrastructure. But even in the United States, the environmental danger is a major cause for concern that needs addressing. Recent examples include the low water levels of the Mississippi halting shipping commerce as well as Kansas and Nebraska suing over water rights and Manhattan being crippled by Superstorm Sandy. (Potter 2011) Also worth mentioning are the over-fishing, whaling and shark-fining practices of Japan and China as seen on the TV show “Whale Wars”. If the US is showing signs of strain, elsewhere it is far worse. So pervasive are the threats of declining resources, especially in Africa, the potential for environmentally-rooted conflicts seems unescapable. Kaplan has provided a framework for the future of conflict outside the US based on solid evidence. Severe environmental situations will surely be the cause, or at the very least, a significant contributor to clashes. Consequently, our future military engagements will be in places described by Kaplan.

I have seen the potential for Kaplan’s theory to come to fruition when I toured through the largest favela (slum) in